Gingrich's New Strategy is Doomed

The former House Speaker has put all his chips on Super Tuesday. If nothing changes, he's going to lose everything.

Do you remember Rudy Giuliani? The former Mayor of New York, the man who spoke for his city on 9/11, looked like a strong candidate for the Republican nomination four years ago. However, in the initial, topsy-turvy days of that primary campaign, his challenge faltered badly. He went to Florida, promising a “firewall” which would re-launch his campaign. It didn’t happen. Having spent almost a month campaigning in the state, he ended 18 points adrift and his campaign was over.

Newt Gingrich is hoping for a firewall. Though he is still the only realistic challenger to Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination, he has suffered in the last week and is facing a February with contests in States where he is not expected to do well. He is banking on very strong showings in more conservative places such as Tennessee and his home state Georgia, when they go to the polls on Super Tuesday, 6^th March.

Gingrich is in a stronger position than Giuliani was, but the basic calculation is the same and remains highly risky. If a week is a long time in politics, then a month is getting on towards an era, and Gingrich cannot afford to be a loser for so long a period of time. There are already suspicions that conservatives are drifting toward Romney because they see him as the only man who can beat Obama. A month without a significant challenge to Romney will not serve to stop that.

But, say that Gingrich remains competitive in national polls and maybe does reasonably well in some states, and arrives at Super Tuesday with his strategy still intact. He will still be coming from behind and he will need to win big. He won’t be able to do that. Yes, there are conservative states voting on that day, but there are also more moderate ones. Romney’s home state of Massachusetts goes to the polls then, and Gingrich isn’t even on the ballot for the state of Virginia.

He will be unable to make big gains on Romney on Super Tuesday. The best he will manage is a strong showing and it will not be enough to make his campaign a substantial challenge to Romney’s. If Mr Gingrich wants to be the nominee, he needs to pull something out of the bag in February.