Iowa and New Hampshire Look to Narrow Republican Field

Romney and Paul lead the field, Santorum and Gingrich trail

“It’s very hard not to look at the recent polls and think the odds are very high that I’m going to be the nominee.” The words of Newt Gingrich a month ago today. If ever there was a comment which showed why Newt Gingrich should not be the Republican Party’s nominee for the election next November, that was it. It was vain, ill-advised and, above all, foolish. The polls in December are as fickle as Russell Brand.

Now, thirty-one days later, on the eve of the Iowa caucus, Newt Gingrich appears to have fallen back behind Mitt Romney, the ever-consistent Republican contender. The most recent polls have Gingrich at fourth in Iowa and third in New Hampshire, behind Romney and Ron Paul in both, and late-surger Rick Santorum in Iowa. If that translated into results over the next few weeks, it would be a devastating blow to Gingrich’s chances.

Iowa and New Hampshire will not decide this primary election, but they will perform the all-important task of whittling the field down a bit. The campaigns of Michelle Bachmann, Jon Huntsman (unfortunately, as he is the best qualified) and Rick Perry are all likely to bite the dust, whilst Gingrich may lose all momentum, unless he pulls something out of the hat. Romney was always going to be there or thereabouts, but it looks like his major contender may well be Ron Paul, who has been consistent throughout the phoney war of this campaign, but the libertarian-outsider must be surprised at the level of support he has received in recent weeks.

Santorum appears to be benefiting from being the last alternative and may well become a major contender. As the campaign has progressed, Romney has never been far away from the lead, but the right wing of the party has looked for an “anyone-but” candidate. First Bachmann, then Perry, then Herman Cain, and now Gingrich, have surged ahead and fallen away. Santorum has become the next in line, but still remains an unknown quantity and has much work to do.

The difficulty for the Republican party is the weakness of their field. The only uniting factor in the party is a hatred of President Obama and their imperative to win back the White House from him. At this point, Romney seems like the only candidate who is able to bring that about, faring well in polls against the President in the important states. However, he is untrustworthy for both left and right, having changed his policies as often as a chameleon has its colour.

Romney may be the best candidate for the Republicans. Their best may not be good enough.