Why Florida is crucial for Gingrich

The former House Speaker has turned his campaign around, but he has to show his party that he can beat Barack Obama

The reignited and increasingly heated Republican race for the Presidential Nomination has moved to the key state of Florida. The Sunshine State is always important being one of the perennial swing-states. It boasts the fourth biggest population in the Union and, though it is predominately White, it has a wide variety of ethnicities living together, most notably significant Hispanic and Black communities. It does not have a Protestant majority, and over a quarter of Floridians are Roman Catholic. That makes a lot of demographics that candidates have to satisfy.

It is, however, in a period of Republican domination. There has essentially been a Republican governor there since 1999, and it's Congressional Delegation is dominated by Republicans. Famously, in the 2010 midterms, it returned the highly controversial, TEA Party politician Marco Rubio as one of its Senators. Nevertheless, in 2008, it voted for Barack Obama.

President Obama has enough support to hold onto a lot of the states he won last time, and the eventual Republican nominee will have to win most of the swing-states to claim the White House. Crucial to this is Florida. If Obama wins its 29 electoral votes, he will be within striking distance of the magic 270 number required for victory.

That fact is why Florida is so crucial for Newt Gingrich’s campaign. He has leapt into a national poll lead over Mitt Romney, and is very competitive with Romney in Florida polls, but when put up against Barack Obama in a potential General Election contest in Florida, he’s in deep trouble. Several polls give Obama an average lead of about 10 points over Gingrich in that state. Without Florida, the Republicans face four more years without the Presidency.

Gingrich needs to win Florida to reassure Republicans that he can win both state and the General in November. If he doesn’t, it will be a serious setback. His national campaign will be marred by questions over whether he has a hope of beating the incumbent President. If he does win Florida though, then the pressure will be on Mitt Romney to find some way of regaining some of the huge amount of ground he has lost, and for him to prove that he is the best candidate to beat Barack Obama.