Newt Gingrich’s extraordinary victory in the South Carolina
primary on Saturday has changed this campaign beyond all recognition. Having been
dead in the water after a wave of negative ads, the former House Speaker is now
closing the gap on Mitt Romney, whose campaign is firmly on the backfoot for
the first time.
What happened last week was that the conservative wing of
the Republican party were very impressed by Gingrich’s gutsy debate
performances, especially the moment when he criticised a moderator for asking
him a question about comments made by his ex-wife. After that, right wing
Republicans fell behind Mr Gingrich in huge numbers.
However, the big loser in this turn of events was Rick
Santorum. He was the choice of Iowa conservatives, but in South Carolina he
couldn’t compete with the resurgent Gingrich. Hitherto, the pair had been
competing along similar levels in national polls, but Santorum has now slipped.
The latest Gallup poll has Gingrich at 28% nationally, one point behind Romney,
whilst former Senator Santorum is down to 12%. Last week, he was tying with
Gingrich on 15%.
On Saturday, Mr Santorum was quite ridiculously chipper,
saying that he “couldn’t be happier” with the South Carolina result. Obviously
this wasn’t the case and what has happened since then has compounded the wound.
In the long run, Gingrich’s notoriety and superior abilities as a debate
performer and rhetorician are going to be far too much for Santorum. He is a
distinct underdog.
If Mr Santorum wants a conservative Republican to win the nomination, he should drop out now, because his supporters are far more likely to vote for Gingrich than Romney in a two horse race, and they could really help Gingrich nationally. Furthermore, a Gingrich victory in Florida a week on Tuesday could put the former Speaker in the driving seat. At present, Santorum is taking votes away from the conservative candidate he can win and is frustrating his own aims by still running.
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