The Romney Juggernaut and the Paul Diversion

The results for first and second in New Hampshire have all but ended the Republican primary campaign

That Mitt Romney has won the New Hampshire primary was expected, and he appears to be heading toward a comprehensive lead in the primaries and perhaps a sweeping victory across all fifty states.

The real question last night was who could finish second in New Hampshire. If it could be Jon Huntsman, the eminently qualified candidate whose campaign has never got going, then the campaign would have retained an element of interest. A credible moderate in the form of Huntsman could have seen a distraction from the Romney juggernaut.

Unfortunately, the independents of New Hampshire have pledged their second place support to Ron Paul, the libertarian from Texas, whose radical views will never win the soul of the Republican party. Paul can introduce new topics into debate (many of which would make other Republican candidates deeply uncomfortable), but he cannot challenge Romney’s stranglehold on the more moderate wing of the GOP.

The moderate Huntsman, who spent a huge amount of money in New Hampshire to no avail, will now still be without momentum and national support. He cannot expect to go to the conservative South Carolina and do at all well. He may hold out until Florida at the end of January, but that’s a long way away. Bullishly staying in the race, Huntsman said tonight “We’re headed south”. He didn’t intend the second meaning.

With Paul trailing in fourth nationally, his momentum gained from a strong second in New England is to be taken with a large pinch of salt. This leaves us with the question of what this campaign is other than a procession for Romney all the way to the convention. It’s building into the smallest of sideshows, as Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich tussle for the endorsement of the party’s right wing, a strong contingent which remains deeply divided.

Romney has the potential to lose from a winning position. He’s getting votes, but he’s not liked. However, as it stands, his opponents need something extraordinary to happen, or Mitt’s going to waltz to the nomination.


In his victory speech, Romney mounted a vicious attack on President Obama. He wasn't bashing Obama in the primary. He was starting the campaign for November.