Florida Heralds Decision Time for Conservative Republicans

Projected Romney victory highlights conservative dilemmas over Gingrich

Mitt Romney looks set to get his campaign for the Republican nomination back on track with a comfortable victory in today’s Florida primary. One poll had him leading main rival Newt Gingrich by 15 points in the Sunshine State, but the two remain neck-and-neck in national polling, with Mr Romney (27%) narrowly trailing Mr Gingrich (28%).

If Mr Romney completes his likely victory in Florida tonight, it will give him a much needed boost, as well as heightening questions about his opponent’s ability to defeat President Barack Obama in November’s General Election. Florida will be a key state in that election, and Gingrich, the former House Speaker, badly needs to prove that he can win the swing states when up against the Democrat incumbent.

At present, Mr Romney is seemingly able to divide and rule this Republican election. There is sufficient conservative support in the party to stop him from becoming the nominee, but only if they were able to coalesce behind one candidate. Currently, that support is split between two divisive candidates, namely Mr Gingrich and former Senator Rick Santorum. Though Mr Gingrich is unacceptable for many of the party’s conservatives, Mr Santorum will face increased calls to drop out of the race for the good of the party after another weak showing this evening.

The race moves swiftly on to Nevada, which holds it caucus on Saturday. It could be crucial in the electoral college, and is winnable for the Republicans, though it voted for Obama four years ago. Mitt Romney won Nevada in his unsuccessful campaign in 2008, and the Gingrich campaign is lowering expectations for the state, as it looks toward March when southern states hold their primaries and caucuses.

So, what we can expect from tonight’s result is the beginning of a good week for Mitt Romney, but a crucial moment for Republican conservatives. As each day goes by, they move closer to the point when they have to take two key decisions. Firstly, can they embrace Newt Gingrich as the only “conservative” who is capable of winning the nomination? Secondly, if they can do that, is it worth the gamble of putting him into a race with President Obama. As tonight’s projected defeat in Florida serves to show, Newt Gingrich, both nationally and in key states, does not look as electable as Mr Romney.