Gingrich Wins Big in South Carolina

Former House Speaker projected to have a substantial victory in the South Carolina primary and reignite campaign

The start of a comeback or a consolation victory? Rick Perry’s concession proved timely for Newt Gingrich, who has won the South Carolina primary, but has his victory in this very conservative state merely made him the totem for the right wing of the Republican Party, or is he now able to seriously challenge Mitt Romney for the nomination?

One response to this surprise win is to say that it is a blip. Romney is well ahead in Florida as it stands and a victory there will cement his front-runner status even further, particularly as that state is practically a must-win for the Republicans in the General.

However, the scale of Gingrich's victory has reignited the campaign and damaged Romney. The former Governor of Massachusetts will need to convert his poll numbers into a win in Florida, but Gingrich was doing well there before the new year, and this week has reminded us that nothing is certain in elections. Furthermore, Perry’s departure and endorsement of Gingrich has led to a national surge for the former House Speaker and he may benefit from further dropouts.

Gingrich's resurrection has made him the leader of “conservatives” in the Republican party. This significant portion of the party has been seeking for someone other than Romney to vote for, and recently Rick Santorum appeared to have become that man at the very last moment. However, he has been unable to pull away from Gingrich, whose strong debate performances have given him a much needed boost.

Gingrich has done astonishingly well in South Carolina, coming back from the dead for the third time in this campaign to win by a significant margin. No-one saw this coming. However, he needs a strong showing in Florida in order to consolidate his challenge to Romney for the nomination, and, as it stands, he is facing an uphill battle there. The best thing that could happen for Gingrich would be Santorum dropping out, which would leave Newt as the undisputed "conservative" candidate.

Romney has been really shaken by this result. This was supposed to be the night that Romney became the ‘inevitable’ nominee, but he’s lost this primary over the last few days and seemingly heavily at that. Now, he will go to Florida needing to regain some momentum. He needs to win, and win as well as possible.

Let’s be frank though; many Republicans are not happy with this turn of events. Romney can defeat Barack Obama in the key states. Gingrich cannot. Furthermore, if this is the start of a long haul primary campaign, then it’s very good news for President Obama. Gingrich and Romney seem to be quite happy to spend months taking chunks out of each other, and Obama can sit back, watch and smile whilst his opponents stomp each other into the ground.