The Super Tuesday that Nobody Lost and Nobody Won

A perplexing series of results keeps the Republican race going and going and going...

Time was that Super Tuesday was the moment when it was all over bar the shouting. We could all select a probable nominee, quietly watch the rest of the primary season tick quietly by and basically take an extended break until the conventions at the end of summer.

Not this year. Whilst last night was a very good night for Mitt Romney, it wasn’t a night of sweeping triumph, wherein he asserted himself as the presumptive nominee. It was a night where his strongholds came through for him, but he did weakly in other states and remained unable to claim much support from the right.

Despite heavy victories in Idaho, Massachusetts and Virgina, and the crucial victory in Ohio, a state which will be crucial in the eventual election in November, Romney was unable to shut out Rick Santorum, losing three states to the former Senator from Pennsylvania. Romney even finished third in North Dakota.

However, it certainly wasn’t Rick Santorum’s night. He won three states, but the narrow loss in Ohio was damaging. He hasn’t yet won one of the states which will be really important in November. Nevertheless, he did better than expected and remains Romney’s only realistic challenger.

Newt Gingrich kept his campaign alive with a strong, if expected, victory in his home state of Georgia. However, this will probably do the right wing more damage than good. There may well be enough right wing votes out there to stop the much-feared Romney candidacy. However, so long as Gingrich is still in the race, those votes will be divided.

Ron Paul had a terrible night, coming third in Alaska, a state he had hoped to win. The Libertarian seems set to continue his race to the very end, but, as was the case four years ago, it has become a sideshow.

So, where does this night that nobody lost and nobody seemed to win leave us? Well, we’re almost halfway through the primary season and Romney is well ahead, but he is a little off being halfway to the 1,144 delegates required to win. He is the candidate who is most likely to get the nomination, but he may not be able to secure it by the time of the convention in August. His only realistic challenger is Rick Santorum, who almost certainly cannot win enough delegates to win the nomination outright, but may become the right’s candidate of choice.

The next few days and weeks will be crucial. If Rick Santorum can stay in touch in the polls, then he could yet stop Romney. He would be greatly assisted by Newt Gingrich rallying behind him as the other right wing candidate, but it seems highly unlikely that the former Speaker from Georgia will drop out.

However, if Romney’s victories tonight are enough to give him a springboard to an increased lead, then he may become unstoppable.