Romney wins in Michigan and Arizona

Important if narrow victory in Michigan makes Romney the front-runner once again

Mitt Romney reasserted his authority in this topsy-turvy Republican primary race with a narrow victory over Rick Santorum, 41% to 38%, in the state of Michigan. The former Governor of Pennsylvania also won the contest in Arizona, though this was largely expected. The victory gives Mr Romney an important boost ahead of next week’s Super Tuesday contests, when 10 states will hold ballots.

Following victories in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, Mr Santorum had surged in the polls nationally, and particularly in Michigan, which is Mr Romney’s childhood home state. Romney did have problems in Michigan, particularly over his failure to support the Detroit bailout of the major car companies in 2008 and 2009. Nevertheless, Romney’s father had been a very popular Governor there and it was thought that he had to win it in order to maintain his position as the most probable nominee.

Mr Romney has lurched to the right in an attempt to fight off Mr Santorum’s conservative support. Santorum is a severely conservative Republican, and a large section of the party is at the moment, so Mr Romney, who has often campaigned as a moderate in the past, has taken the risk of losing some support from his more independent base by spouting increasingly right-wing rhetoric.

It is a risk which has not yet paid off. The victory in Michigan, a state which, lest we forget, Mr Romney should have won comfortably and did win in 2008, is more down to Santorum’s faltering performance over the last few days than Romney’s new tactics. Particularly at last Wednesday’s debate in Arizona, Mr Santorum, who was the new leader in the polls, produced a garbled and faltering display. Romney, on the other hand, was steady, polished and considered.

Though Romney is now, once again, the front-runner, it remains to be seen whether Mr Romney has done enough to puncture Mr Santorum’s support. However, it is unlikely that many conservatives now wish to vote for Romney having so staunchly opposed him so far, and with the race still being very open. Mr Santorum’s greatest enemy at the moment is himself and his habit of putting his foot in it. He now needs a very strong showing next Tuesday to get his campaign back on track.

The other candidates in the race, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich had relatively poor evenings. Mr Paul, the Libertarian who has small but dedicated support, will run all the way through the 50 states and may attract enough delegates to ensure that no other candidate wins a majority of delegates. Newt Gingrich, however, is struggling. If he fails to make any ground next week, particularly in his home state of Georgia, he will come under a lot of pressure, financial and political, to drop out. If he does, his endorsement may decide who wins the race.

The race now moves to caucuses in Wyoming this evening, and Washington state on Saturday, followed by the 10 contest on Super Tuesday, next week.

Full results and updated delegate counts are available here.