Florida Heralds Decision Time for Conservative Republicans

Projected Romney victory highlights conservative dilemmas over Gingrich

Mitt Romney looks set to get his campaign for the Republican nomination back on track with a comfortable victory in today’s Florida primary. One poll had him leading main rival Newt Gingrich by 15 points in the Sunshine State, but the two remain neck-and-neck in national polling, with Mr Romney (27%) narrowly trailing Mr Gingrich (28%).

Why Florida is crucial for Gingrich

The former House Speaker has turned his campaign around, but he has to show his party that he can beat Barack Obama

The reignited and increasingly heated Republican race for the Presidential Nomination has moved to the key state of Florida. The Sunshine State is always important being one of the perennial swing-states. It boasts the fourth biggest population in the Union and, though it is predominately White, it has a wide variety of ethnicities living together, most notably significant Hispanic and Black communities. It does not have a Protestant majority, and over a quarter of Floridians are Roman Catholic. That makes a lot of demographics that candidates have to satisfy.

Obama highlights achievements and attacks public enemies

Cool and calculated State of the Union address attempts to balance governing and campaigning

President Barack Obama’s third and potentially final State of the Union was largely a thoughtful speech, low on emotion, but high on policy initiatives and pleas for greater bi-partisan co-operation. Drawing on the example of the US Armed Services, who in the past year had finally returned from Iraq and killed Osama Bin Laden, the President called for greater teamwork from those in Washington to save American values and pledged continued and wide-ranging work to drive forward the reconstruction of a modern American economy.

A Potted History of the State of the Union

Before Barack Obama's speech tonight, The Redcoat gives you a brief introduction to the State of the Union

“He shall from time to time give to Congress information of the State of the Union and recommend to their Consideration such measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient.” This is the constitutional basis of what has become the State of the Union address, but it does not demand a speech. As Toby Ziegler noted in The West Wing: “If the President buys Congress a subscription to The Wall Street Journal, he’s fulfilled his constitutional obligation.”

If Santorum wants a conservative Republican Candidate, then he should drop out now

After the Gingrich resurgence, Santorum is frustrating his own aims

Newt Gingrich’s extraordinary victory in the South Carolina primary on Saturday has changed this campaign beyond all recognition. Having been dead in the water after a wave of negative ads, the former House Speaker is now closing the gap on Mitt Romney, whose campaign is firmly on the backfoot for the first time.

Gingrich Wins Big in South Carolina

Former House Speaker projected to have a substantial victory in the South Carolina primary and reignite campaign

The start of a comeback or a consolation victory? Rick Perry’s concession proved timely for Newt Gingrich, who has won the South Carolina primary, but has his victory in this very conservative state merely made him the totem for the right wing of the Republican Party, or is he now able to seriously challenge Mitt Romney for the nomination?

The Romney Juggernaut and the Paul Diversion

The results for first and second in New Hampshire have all but ended the Republican primary campaign

That Mitt Romney has won the New Hampshire primary was expected, and he appears to be heading toward a comprehensive lead in the primaries and perhaps a sweeping victory across all fifty states.

The real question last night was who could finish second in New Hampshire. If it could be Jon Huntsman, the eminently qualified candidate whose campaign has never got going, then the campaign would have retained an element of interest. A credible moderate in the form of Huntsman could have seen a distraction from the Romney juggernaut.

Unfortunately, the independents of New Hampshire have pledged their second place support to Ron Paul, the libertarian from Texas, whose radical views will never win the soul of the Republican party. Paul can introduce new topics into debate (many of which would make other Republican candidates deeply uncomfortable), but he cannot challenge Romney’s stranglehold on the more moderate wing of the GOP.

The moderate Huntsman, who spent a huge amount of money in New Hampshire to no avail, will now still be without momentum and national support. He cannot expect to go to the conservative South Carolina and do at all well. He may hold out until Florida at the end of January, but that’s a long way away. Bullishly staying in the race, Huntsman said tonight “We’re headed south”. He didn’t intend the second meaning.

With Paul trailing in fourth nationally, his momentum gained from a strong second in New England is to be taken with a large pinch of salt. This leaves us with the question of what this campaign is other than a procession for Romney all the way to the convention. It’s building into the smallest of sideshows, as Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich tussle for the endorsement of the party’s right wing, a strong contingent which remains deeply divided.

Romney has the potential to lose from a winning position. He’s getting votes, but he’s not liked. However, as it stands, his opponents need something extraordinary to happen, or Mitt’s going to waltz to the nomination.


In his victory speech, Romney mounted a vicious attack on President Obama. He wasn't bashing Obama in the primary. He was starting the campaign for November.

Santorum won't win the nomination for President. VP however...

What has surprise candidate Rick Santorum actually achieved this week?

A week is most certainly a long time in politics, but Rick Santorum changed the face of this campaign for the Republican nomination for President in the space of about 48 hours. As Steven Colbert quipped just hours before the Iowa caucus, “I was shocked to discover that Santorum had risen straight to the head of the third place”. A day later, he had come second by eight votes. Now, he appears to be turning into Mitt Romney’s main contender.

It was all a matter of timing. The right wingers in the Republican party (the ones who make Margaret Thatcher look like Glenda Jackson) have been looking for an “anyone-but-Romney-candidate”. They tried Michelle Bachmann, who suspended her campaign after her sixth place finish in Iowa, and then Rick Perry, and then Herman Cain, and then, unbelievably, they flirted with Newt Gingrich, heavily: like Ryan Giggs with his sister-in-law.

All of those candidates fell by the wayside or, in Herman Cain’s case, returned to the wayside. Finally, at the eleventh hour, the right turned to Rick Santorum, a pro-life, anti-gay, climate-change-denying and intelligent-design supporting former Senator from Pennsylvania. I’m surprised it took them so long.

Now, thanks to 30,000 people in Iowa (and Newt Gingrich’s past catching up with him), Santorum is the Republican right-wing’s golden boy. That shan’t be enough (unless something extraordinary happens). Romney’s got it all sewn-up (he also received John McCain's endorsement this week) and remains the only candidate who has a realistic chance of taking on President Obama. He will win big in New Hampshire on Tuesday, and find himself as the undoubted front-runner.

That was the case last week, so what’s really changed? Well, the right has finally found someone who they’re going to rally behind in these primaries and a totem pole to dance around at the convention. Santorum will not win the Republican nomination, but he may ensure that he is Mitt Romney’s running mate.

Romney beats Santorum in Iowa by 8 votes

Romney wins Iowa Caucus, with Santorum second very narrowly, Paul a strong third

Eight votes. After weeks of campaigning in Iowa, Mitt Romney’s margin of victory was eight votes. However, the really extraordinary thing about the result is that Rick Santorum’s margin of defeat was eight votes.

Both Romney and Santorum got about 25% of the vote, Ron Paul 21% and Newt Gingrich 13%. Rick Perry , who finished fifth with 10%, has retired to his home-state Texas to consider whether or not to continue his campaign. Michelle Bachmann (5%) and Jon Huntsman (1%) seem to be fighting on to New Hampshire, but for their campaigns one suspects that the damage is irreparable.

Santorum was a relative unknown two weeks ago and this is an extraordinary result for him. Whilst Romney has maintained his votes from four years ago, Santorum really has burst from nowhere and is now a serious candidate. Ron Paul converted his poll figures into caucus votes, whilst Newt Gingrich has to fight back in New Hampshire or his campaign may find a severe drop in funding.

And what of Romney? There must have been a lot of relief in his campaign in the early hours of this morning when the result was confirmed. By an unbelievably small margin, the perennial front-runner remains just that: his is the face which will appear the most on news bulletins this morning. Had those eight votes gone the other way, he would have claimed a joint-victory, but would have done so having come second, and some damage would have been done. Now, Santorum faces an uphill battle away from the evangelical heartlands of Iowa to become more than a flash in the pan, whilst Romney has some plain sailing in his strongholds to look forward to.

That is, unless there is another twist in this tale.

Negative Newt Dislikes Own Medicine

From his embarassing past to his poisonous public speaking, Newt Gingrich has few grounds for complaint about negativity

Newt Gingrich still sits second in national GOP polls, but is trailing in the key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. The fall in Gingrich’s fortunes over recent weeks has been put down to the enormous amount of money spent on negative attack ads, particular by groups connected to Ron Paul and Mitt Romney, leaders in Iowa, and seemingly Gingrich’s main contenders nationally.

The response of Gingrich has been characteristically petulant, apportioning the blame on these ads which, whilst negative, do raise the key issue with Newt Gingrich’s campaign: the candidate’s past. The only serving Speaker to be ethically censured by the House of Representatives, Gingrich also pocketed huge sums of money as a consultant for the mortgage trader, Freddie Mac, which was given a huge public bail-out following the mortgage crisis of 2007-8. The man who famously forced a Federal government shutdown in part because of receiving a substandard seat on Air Force One, Gingrich’s record is one of doubtful character, self-promotion and questionable ethics. These stories and the qualities they show are issues he needs to confront, and, thus far, he has failed to do so.

Furthermore, though Gingrich has refused to take out negative ads, his rhetorical style has been of a thoroughly unattractive bent. The man who told Mitt Romney that “the only reason [Romney] hadn’t become a full time politician was because he lost [a senate race] to Ted Kennedy in 1994” and has dismissed Ron Paul, who has support of around 20% in Iowa, as little more than “a good protest vote”, can have little to complain about when negativity comes his way.

Iowa and New Hampshire Look to Narrow Republican Field

Romney and Paul lead the field, Santorum and Gingrich trail

“It’s very hard not to look at the recent polls and think the odds are very high that I’m going to be the nominee.” The words of Newt Gingrich a month ago today. If ever there was a comment which showed why Newt Gingrich should not be the Republican Party’s nominee for the election next November, that was it. It was vain, ill-advised and, above all, foolish. The polls in December are as fickle as Russell Brand.

Now, thirty-one days later, on the eve of the Iowa caucus, Newt Gingrich appears to have fallen back behind Mitt Romney, the ever-consistent Republican contender. The most recent polls have Gingrich at fourth in Iowa and third in New Hampshire, behind Romney and Ron Paul in both, and late-surger Rick Santorum in Iowa. If that translated into results over the next few weeks, it would be a devastating blow to Gingrich’s chances.

Iowa and New Hampshire will not decide this primary election, but they will perform the all-important task of whittling the field down a bit. The campaigns of Michelle Bachmann, Jon Huntsman (unfortunately, as he is the best qualified) and Rick Perry are all likely to bite the dust, whilst Gingrich may lose all momentum, unless he pulls something out of the hat. Romney was always going to be there or thereabouts, but it looks like his major contender may well be Ron Paul, who has been consistent throughout the phoney war of this campaign, but the libertarian-outsider must be surprised at the level of support he has received in recent weeks.

Santorum appears to be benefiting from being the last alternative and may well become a major contender. As the campaign has progressed, Romney has never been far away from the lead, but the right wing of the party has looked for an “anyone-but” candidate. First Bachmann, then Perry, then Herman Cain, and now Gingrich, have surged ahead and fallen away. Santorum has become the next in line, but still remains an unknown quantity and has much work to do.

The difficulty for the Republican party is the weakness of their field. The only uniting factor in the party is a hatred of President Obama and their imperative to win back the White House from him. At this point, Romney seems like the only candidate who is able to bring that about, faring well in polls against the President in the important states. However, he is untrustworthy for both left and right, having changed his policies as often as a chameleon has its colour.

Romney may be the best candidate for the Republicans. Their best may not be good enough.